Analysis on the change of China's electrolytic alu

2022-08-02
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In the first half of 2017, the exclusive research data of Aladdin (ALD) showed that the total capacity of China's primary aluminum in the first half of 2017 was 43.477 million tons, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year. The operating capacity was 38.492 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.92%. The monthly accumulative new production capacity was 2.21 million tons, the accumulative re production capacity was 635000 tons, and the accumulative reduced production capacity was 470000 tons

chart 1 operating capacity and operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in China

data source: Aladdin (ALD)

in the first half of 2017, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China increased by 2375000 tons. With the economic constraints of aerospace, national defense, kerosene chemical industry, transportation and other people, the production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has been adjusted and upgraded. Under the background of environmental protection inspection and supply side reform pushing up prices, electrolytic aluminum enterprises have accelerated production and resumed production, Although the pressure of illegal production capacity reduction is great, the willingness to take the initiative to withdraw is very low. Therefore, it was not until June, the time node of the stage, that there was a clear message of production reduction released to the market

Table 1 monthly change of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the first half of 2017

data source: Aladdin (ALD)

from the perspective that 90% of the qualified products and scale can be guaranteed only by the amount of new production, resumption of production and production reduction in the first half of 2017, the production of new production capacity is gradually reflected by the impact of policies, and the construction and production of illegal production capacity are slowed down or even suspended. The news of resumption of production began after May. Ye (5) 0 pressure testing machine appeared intensively in China, and the compliance idle capacity actively resumed production driven by considerable profits. The news of production reduction has increased significantly since June. Although the aluminum plant has higher profits, the strict promotion of policies has increased the pressure on enterprises, and the illegal production capacity has begun to be reduced in succession

according to ALD data, in the first half of 2017, a total of 2.21 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity was newly put into production in China, of which 1.3 million tons were put into production by Weiqiao group, accounting for 58.8% of the total. The main production time was in the period when the monthly policy was not completely clear. Xinjiang Xi'an Aluminum Co., Ltd. and Jinlian Aluminum Co., Ltd. are most obviously restricted by policies. In the first half of the year, only 40000 tons and 150000 tons of new production capacity were put into operation, and the projects in the later period were temporarily suspended. After the surplus capacity built by Shandong Xinfa was put into operation, the projects under construction involved violations and were not put into operation. Other compliant enterprises are still putting into operation in an orderly manner. In particular, Chalco Huayun new materials is putting into operation at the fastest speed, accelerating the development of the new materials industry. On May 1, phase II was powered on step, and 200000 tons of new materials had been put into operation by the end of June. Zunyi aluminum upgrading and leveling projects were put into operation as scheduled, and all of them were full production in early July. Taking advantage of the policy, Chalco's new electrolytic aluminum projects will be concentrated in the country in 2017

Table 2 details of China's newly invested electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the first half of 2017

data source: Aladdin (ALD)

Aladdin (ALD) data show that in the first half of 2017, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 635000 tons. With the continuous high operation of aluminum prices, the enthusiasm of aluminum plants to restart production capacity was high in the peak consumption season in the first half of the year. The resumption of production is basically spread across all provinces in China, especially in the former high-cost areas in the southwest and northwest. Although the production volume of each enterprise is small, the total number is still considerable. Among them, Dongxing Longxi branch, Qinglv Ningdong, Baihe regeneration, Baise Yinhai, Qujing aluminum and other enterprises are currently in the process of resumption of production, and it is expected to continue to release production in the second half of the year

Table 2 details of China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the first half of 2017

data source: Aladdin (ALD)

Aladdin (ALD) data show that in the first half of 2017, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity was reduced by 470000 tons, of which Dongxing Longxi branch and Qixing aluminum both resumed production after the reduction. Jinyuan aluminum stopped production due to capital problems. It is reported that the indicators have been sold. The impact of the policy on the illegal production capacity began to be revealed. Since May, the news of production reduction has been emerging. Xinjiang Jiarun announced a production reduction of 150000 tons in phase II, Weiqiao aluminum announced a production reduction of 250000 tons, and Xinjiang Xi'an aluminum announced a plan to reduce production by more than 700000 tons. The production reduction is no longer a cry, but a practical action. Therefore, the market has regained confidence in the policy. After July, Shandong Xinfa's illegal production capacity will be reduced in the market, On the whole, the capacity reduction policy is being vigorously promoted, and it is expected that the news and facts of production reduction in the third quarter will continue to increase

Table 3 details of China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity reduction in the first half of 2017

data source: Aladdin (ALD)

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