The hottest industry expects the downward trend of

2022-08-26
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Industry expectation: the downward trend of natural rubber prices may end

the bright spots in China's commodity market in the second half of the year are exciting. Data showed that natural rubber prices stopped falling and rebounded in September, and both futures and spot markets showed an upward trend in October. Does this mean that natural rubber prices have reversed the downturn that lasted for five years? The results are expected. In this regard, many industry insiders gave the industry expectation that the natural rubber price decline trend or end at the fourth Hainan rubber (International) development forum

industry expectation: the downward trend of natural rubber price may end

the current macro environment affects the price trend

the relevant statistical data on the modified protein compounding solution show that in 2015, the cumulative output of natural rubber in China was about 820000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, and the year-on-year decrease of output occurred for the first time in the past five years. On the whole, the imbalance between supply and demand continues. In 2015, the market price of natural rubber continued to decline, and the prices of futures and finished rubber once fell below the 10000 yuan mark, creating a seven-year low. The price of natural rubber has been depressed for many years. Why? Many insiders have listed China's economic factors as an important reference

it is reported that the natural and color changes with the thickness of the film, and the demand for rubber indirectly reflects the consumption level and industrial development level of the economy. Historically, economic growth is the core factor affecting natural rubber consumption. From the downstream industrial chain of natural rubber, its largest consumption comes from industrial demand - 70% is used for tire manufacturing; The demand of tire manufacturing is mainly driven by the automobile manufacturing industry

Zhuzhenxin, chief macro researcher of Minsheng securities, believes that as a major global consumer of natural rubber, China's economic slowdown and measures to remove inventory and capacity have an impact on the continued downturn in natural rubber prices. "There are many obvious obstacles to capacity reduction, which will lengthen the cycle of capacity destocking and economic downturn in the world's largest production base of high-purity aluminum and high-purity alloys."

Tang Ke, a professor at Tsinghua University, believes that financial factors are also important factors affecting the prices of bulk commodities, including natural rubber. Tang Ke analyzed that the entry of financial capital has affected the price fluctuation of the commodity market by financial factors, especially in 2014, with the decline of the growth rate of the real economy, investors gradually withdrew from the commodity futures market, which also led to the decline of commodity prices

in addition, Robert Meyer, CEO and executive chairman of halcyon agri (Chinese Name: Hesheng), a Singapore listed company under Sinochem Group, believes that due to the high price of rubber from 2010 to 2011, the subsequent oversupply of rubber can be solved only after there are problems. The resulting things are different, resulting in overcapacity. In addition, insufficient investment also triggers tension on the supply side, The combined effect of multiple factors led to the low performance of glue price

confidence the demand for rubber is still considerable

the leading product of the rubber industry is tires, and the consumption of tires accounts for about 70% of the total consumption of the rubber industry. The development of tire enterprises and rubber enterprises can be described as "lips and teeth depend on each other"

ephen ans, Secretary General of the international rubber research organization, believes that China is a large rubber consumer in the world. Under the new economic normal, with the help of supply side reform, it is expected to actively stimulate the consumption of China's rubber tire products by relying on the favorable automobile consumption policy and the growth of vehicle ownership. At the same time, the differentiated development of the supply side of rubber production can promote the upgrading of the rubber industry and stimulate demand growth

according to the data of the General Administration of customs, in October this year, China imported 450000 tons of rubber (including natural rubber, synthetic rubber, etc.), an increase of 9.8% year-on-year and a decrease of 8.2% month on month. From January to October, China imported 4.52 million tons of rubber, an increase of 24.2% year-on-year. Although the total volume still showed growth, it gradually fell month on month. Coupled with the recovery of domestic tire consumption, China's natural rubber inventory fell rapidly

houfengxia, Deputy Secretary General of China Rubber Industry Association, also said that with the improvement of residents' consumption structure and the promotion of the three-year action plan for the construction of major national transportation infrastructure projects, it will drive the development of the automotive industry and drive the demand growth of all steel tires and semi steel tires

trend: output declines and prices rise

"when will the spring of natural rubber market come?" Many insiders said that the downward trend in the price of natural rubber has ended, and the price of natural rubber may rise in the future due to the contraction of the supply side

Robert Meyer pointed out that natural rubber production and consumption can improve quality and efficiency through resource integration. Large enterprises such as Haijiao group and Sinochem Group can further enhance the scale effect through mergers and acquisitions, provide differentiated supply of high-quality rubber products around the value needs of customers, and tap the value potential of the industrial supply chain

Mei Yuntao, general manager of Shanghai ShunJia Industrial Co., Ltd., believes that in recent years, the price of natural rubber has continued to fall, coupled with the impact of weather and other factors, the rubber production at the supply side has contracted, the supply growth rate has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. From the PMI data of China's entire manufacturing industry, China's real economy remained stable

Mei Yuntao said that in the medium and long term, the price of natural rubber will continue to find a balance point, and the possibility of continuous sharp rise is very small, and it is more likely to be a wide fluctuation at the bottom

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